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DAY 6 of protesting for a fairer monetization model
- 2 years 100 people (if anything I think the average might be higher both in people and time) => 1 game $60
- 2 years 70 people (size of Team 5) => 6 standard-legal expansions
- Bundle $80 * 6
- "mini expansion" 26% of $ 80 => $20
- => 0.7 game (This is ~ the percentage of cards you will get while ignoring rarities and things like battlepass xp, cosmetics, and pre-order time-frames. This doesn't include the Classic Set.) $600
The paywall is the main reason why players quit or commit to drudgerous grinding (which shouldn't happen in a videogame because that creates addiction, and because your time is wasted if you're not truely having fun). For more data on the monetization issue of Hearthstone please visit this post.
Did you want cosmetic upgrades for your cards too? That'll only be about a year's worth of rent.
Outright removal of the battlepassBattlepasses are manipulative practices which weedled their way into our games and we've been complacent about them because they seemed like good deals relative to how much we were price-gouged by microtransactions before. They exist only to harbor addiction by keeping you tied to a commitment, lock content with an arbitrary limited-time-frame which players grind at the end of the season to not miss, and you may potentially not grind enough xp to earn the skins of your Tavern Pass. In addition, Blizzard will certainly use the bonus-xp events to control when you play in a way they couldn't before. Finally, you should only be coming back to a game for fun, and not to be industrious in a fictional space. Battlepasses HAVE NO PLACE in Hearthstone!
Ben Lee's stimulus packageForget about the rewards track changes that essentially gives players +10.5 packs this season (plus extra selection on which slot machine you gamble on). That's 1-2 non-duplicate epics, 3 non-duplicate rares, 3 non-duplicate commons, and 300 dust for most players. I know this is precious when you're accustomed to in-game poverty, but it's not worth what we're protesting for by a long-shot. Like the American Federal Government, they're ignoring the systematic issues they created and snuffing out opposition with a pathetic stimulus. They may as well have said "let them eat funnelcakes". And if they make another PR move that offers us more packs, no matter how many that may be, ignore that too.
#NoMoreWhaleGamesOnce 90% of people on this subreddit collectively agree to the demand-list, I'm calling for the beginning of our official Twitter, YouTube, and app-store protest. This means that we'll all reply to the latest tweets on some specific accounts and comment on the latest YouTube videos of some channels once a day until the end of the overall Hearthstone protest on this subreddit. I'll anounce the go-signal on a daily post after we agree. Please don't begin without this coordination since we wouldn't be taken as seriously without it.
On these platforms, I invite you to post this preprepared message (except for in reply to the tweet about Veteran's Day):
We demand a fair monetization model from Blizzard! [Reddit link of that DAY X Post] #NoMoreWhaleGames
The Twitter accounts are:
- CEO of Activision Blizzard
- Competitive Hearthstone
- Youtuber who thrives on making content about this (I'll delete this link after he uploads a video)
The YouTube accounts are:
For those of you who haven't already, I invite you to post a bad review or 1-star rating on the Google Play Store or App Store. This matters to Blizzard because games with a lower rating have a harder time climbing the top charts. We've already reduced Hearthstone on the Google Play Store to 3.9 and 3.6 on the App Store, with a substantial drop last week.
Finally, once we agree on our demands, there will be no negotiations with Winnie Mussolini and we will not tolerate compromises. So we must choose them wisely.
The NoMoreWhaleGames demand-list for Hearthstone
- The shop in Hearthstone is revamped according to the following changes in the obvious nessesary ways (IE: No more $69.99 for 60 Classic Packs).
- For every hero, there is a $3.99 purchase called a "Class Bundle" which provides playsets of all the cards of that hero in a given expansion set, including wild. As well as class-cards, those bundles will provide specific neutral cards of that set such that one could have every* card if they bought all the bundles. The exception is neutral legendaries because there have only been 3-5 of them since Ungoro.
- For every set, there is a $39.90 bundle that encompasses every Class Bundle of that set. This is the new Mega Bundle. The price of this bundle is decreased according to the Class Bundles already purchased. It includes one golden pack of that set and the neutral legendaries as bonuses.
- Class Bundles, Mega Bundles, and adventures that aren't standard-legal are discounted by 25%.
- Each of these bundles can only be purchased once per account.
- Each of these bundles can be purchased regardless of how many cards a player already has.
- There remains the option of buying packs (this is indeed called "NoMoreWhaleGames", but purchasing packs under this environment would be unessesary for the normal player in every respect, and some may want to show their support expensively by going for all-golden collections/decks or just enjoy opening packs).
- The price of standalone packs is $0.99 for 1 pack up to $29.99 for 60 packs.
- There is no Class Bundle or Mega Bundle for the Classic Set. Instead, the Welcome Bundle contains 60 Classic Packs (because 10 Classic Packs is too slow of a start) and 1 Classic Legendary. It costs $16.99 (it was only $5 before to hook players with sunk-cost fallacy).
- Seasonal Battlegrounds Perks can be bought with gold.
- You get 10 gold per win instead of for every 3 wins.
- Achievements give 10% of their achievement-point worth as gold when achieved.
- Rewards for tiers 7-12 of Arena are increased by a pack. Rewards for tiers 8-11 are increased by ~20% more gold. Rewards for tier 12 is increased by ~100% more gold. The same is true for Duels because that has the same rewards as Arena.
- Golden epics cost 800 dust to craft, golden rares cost 400, and golden commons cost 200. Golden legendaries stay at 3200.
- You can complete quests in all modes (except when restricting the mode is integral to the quest, for example: "Win 2 games of Duels").
- Removal of the Tavern Pass and rewards track in favour of the old quests system (Weekly quests should be removed because they hold people to a arbitrary commitment, same as the Tavern Pass; you are not an employee within Hearthstone, it is not your duty to earn gold.).
- Reemburse players who bought the Tavern Pass by giving them the premium skins without them having to work for it, and some gold.
- Reemburse the players' Madness at the Darkmoon Faerie pre-orders (in in-game items) as though this new monetization model had been in effect during the Madness at the Darkmoon Faire pre-order period.
This creates a future with 3 types of paying players:
- The broke/budget player who buys into standard for ~$30.96 for his favourite 2 classes and spends ~$15.98 each expansion.
- The average paying player who buys into standard with 1-2 Mega-Bundles and buys the Mega-Bundle + maybe a few cosmetics each expansion.
- The most hardcore player who seeks to collect a whole wild collection and maybe golden decks/sets and all the skins.
There's always room for anotherThis shall not only be the end of Blizzard's whale-hunting practices in Hearthstone but, in time, the end of whale-hunting across the industry. Other gaming communities will talk about how the Hearthstone community retaliated against its predatory publisher, and will follow suit with their own revolt. In order to make this sweep possible, we must prove that we can do it once to a massive publisher. One success would warrant reputation and support from doubtful gamers who would rally with us in fiery indignation if they believed it wasn't impossible to end whale-hunting by protesting. I invite you to do this for their sake as well and to contribute to their protests when the sweep begins.
End of turnIt's an insult that Blizzard and Ben Lee remained silent after more than 10 000 of us already protested on Reddit. If it weren't for the Tavern Pass which sparked a pent-up outrage and all the daily posts expressing our discontent, Hearthstone would surely remain a fundamentally broken game. However, this is different than the protests of 1-3 years ago because we have momentum from the backlash of the new reward system. And we're taking heed to issues within Hearthstone instead of foreign politics.
Please upvote this, vote on comments, and comment on this to trigger Reddit's algorithm to get it to the top of hot, but not just these DAY X posts. If more posts reach thousands of upvotes and new ones shift into hot, it creates liveliness and prevents interest from dieing out. In order to ensure this succeeds, we must collectively accelerate it into an even bigger riot than before!
Let's use the momentum of this past week as a slingshot to get the PR response we deserve. And when we do, may we proudly spam into the circlejerk subreddit... "P2p BTW".
CTSO - my lotto ticket
Over the last week, I've built myself a position/4 month lottery ticket of 19:1 odds minimum.This post is NOT to encourage others to copy that, but to share my thinking behind it and hope to hear interesting critiques. I may lose all my premium in this position, but its a risk I'm willing to take. As a degen and given my perception of the odds, I gotta do what I gotta do.
The trade is long $CTSO call options and stocks. The post has 3 sections -
- thesis (as concise as I could make it);
- bet/trade structure;
- significant risks/further reading;
- About: Cytosorbents ($CTSO) is a biotech company focusing on blood-purification via blood filters (cytosorbs) mainly for use in cardiac surgery patients, but also in other critically-ill patients.
- Summary Financials: $CTSO trades at an enterprise value(EV) of $280mm/mkt cap of $350mm. They've been growing at 60% yoy growth, with current annual revenues at $30mm, cash-on-hand of $90mm and annualized cash burn of $5m.
- Current WS consensus: Consensus stock price from wall street analysts is $15 (but who listens to them)
- Primary catalyst: The firm got breakthrough FDA designation to remove ticagrelor in cardiac surgery patients in Apr 2020, and the bet is on them getting full approval over the next few months. They already have EU approval for this, and FDA approval will open US markets and increase the total addressable market (TAM) by anywhere between $250million to $1.5billion per year. REMOVE trial results are expected in second half 2020 (topline results expected anytime now as trial is complete), and a positive result should confirm the path to FDA approval.
- Secondary catalysts: Not counting on these, but good to have:
- earnings outperformance (low expectations currently in spite of growth trajectory) - company delivered 60% yoy growth in Q1 and Q2 despite elective surgeries having a slowdown in Q2 (deficit made up by COVID use) and became commercially available in Latin countries in June.
- Biotech sector RV convergence: I notice many biotechs trade on hope and having market cap of $1-2bn, even without any product approval/manufacturing in place. Here's a company growing at 60%, with a product that has been used >100k times across multiple indications with positive results, and has EU approval but trading at such discounted levels. Think its missing a flagship/activist investor who could serve as a microphone for the company.
- EUA (emergency use authorization) for use in severe COVID patients getting extended/broadened;
- Accelerated progress in their HemoDefend product (universal plasma transfer technology that removes restriction on A/B/AB/O donor vs. recipient matching): DoD granted ~$5mm in grants this year - $1mm on Friday itself;
- BigPharma acquisition or collaboration
- Conservative Valuation: Given positive REMOVE results and hence FDA approval, we assume incremental $500mm TAM (lower end of $0.25-$1.5bn), I expect stock to be at $25 minimum
- TAM of $500mm x 0.2 market share = $100mm revenues additional -> $130mm per year
- 75% gross profit margin = $100mm gross profit;
- 2x S&A expenses of $40mm and constant R&D expenses of $10mm = $50mio EBIT
- EV/EBIT of 20 = $1bn valuation = approx. $25 stock price
- If market sees it as incremental TAM of $1.5bn, the stock should do 7x minimum. Further, the approval could be seen as validation for the company and their role in critical care management, and potentially unlocks usage for broader indications (as this is a broad spectrum therapeutic), and bigpharma collaborations.
I am long 330 (x100) call options at strike $15 for 19Feb21. I bought them for approx. $0.5 per contract. If my view is realized, that should mean bet-payoff is 19:1 (i.e. $9.5 profit).
Is this a positive expected value (EV) bet? I don't know, but here's my subjective probabilities:
- Probability of getting FDA/REMOVE news by Feb = 1/3 (breakthrough designation 6 months ago so final approval in 10 months I hope)
- Probability that FDA news is approval = 1/2 (conservative given EU approval and FDA breakthrough approval already + given case results etc)
- Probability of FDA approval, hence = 1/6 (0.33 * 0.5)
Using Kelly's criterion, given the odds and payoffs, I should bet 12% of my bet stack. (If I regard probability is lower by 50% , I should bet 4% of my stack)
I've mitigated some of the risks by also buying some stock since that has no expiry limitations (probability of win = 1/3 since no expiry; bet-payoff with a stop at -50% = 6:1; Kelly's criterion: 22%; with 50% lower probability: 3%)
Kelly criterion is just a starting point, I further took into account how much I am comfortable losing and leaving some dry powder for a pull-back. To start with, I've decided to go with an investment of $17k in options right now, and >$100k in stocks. I will upsize/downsize as I get more news, but that's the position for now.
I'm not willing to imagine what happens if market views it as an incremental $1.5bn TAM. (You're a voice in my head. No, you're a voice in mine. You're a fucking hallucination, why can't I get rid of you.)
- Biggest risk is price catalysts don't materialize.
- I don't have any Dollar Bill connections - so am I not not unsure, lol. (No FDA or CTSO contacts to be clear)
- Illiquid stock/option market and micro-cap risks
- 7% short float and 9 days to cover - is that sizeable for a short squeeze? I don't know
- Further reading:
P.S. - Hope you enjoyed it, and you feel encouraged to share your DD posts.
EDIT: For those interested to play this, think using stocks is probably better than options. Vol is quite high, and options markets are illiquid. Plus you are not subject to expiry limitations/timing issues and the odds are quite good there too. (It took me 4 days to build my calls slowly)