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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 6th, 2020
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning July 6th, 2020.
For markets in week ahead, investors will gauge the severity of the coronavirus spread - (Source)
Stocks in the week ahead will focus on the severity of the spread of the coronavirus, during what should be a lull between Thursday’s strong jobs report and the upcoming earnings season.
Stocks had a bang-up week, in the four days ahead of the long July 4 weekend, with all indexes making sharp gains. A surprise record gain of 4.8 million jobs in June lifted stocks on Thursday, boosting sentiment into the weekend. The S&P 500 was up 4%% at 3,130, and the Dow was up 3.2% at 25,827%, in their best week since June 5. The Nasdaq, up 4.6% posted its best week since May 7 and closed at a record 10,207.
Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat, said the market has further to go, even with new U.S. coronavirus cases reaching a record daily high above 50,000.
“There’s more weak sellers, and I think the market is in the hands of buyers. I think stocks are going to do pretty well in July,” he said. “There’s just too much cash on the sidelines, and there’s concern about the virus. There’s too much concern about the economy. There is just too much of a wall of worry.”
Stocks have been able to shrug off the spreading coronavirus outbreak that has resulted in renewed shutdowns of some economic activity and delays to some anticipated openings. There is concern those economic closings could be a blow the recovery, making it more shallow and less sustainable than expected.
Earnings season starts mid-month, and there are just a few reports in the coming week. Levi Strauss releases earnings Tuesday, Bed, Bath and Beyond is Wednesday, and Walgreens Boots Alliance reports Thursday.
According to Refinitiv, second-quarter earnings are expect to be down 43%.
As earnings start to roll out, Congress may also be a focus for markets as it negotiates the next round of stimulus.
“We know July is going to be difficult unless we get more fiscal policy,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “The labor market is going to run dry or at least slow down because part of it is helped by government assistance.”
Congress has a small window after July 20 to debate the phase 4 Covid stimulus package, which is expected to include a renewal of enhanced unemployment benefits that expire at the end of July. But there’s disagreement on what those benefits should be, and how big the package should be. It also is expected to include aid for state and local governments.
As states shut activity again, there is concern that some data that has shown big improvements may not continue to do so. “Are markets prepared to see sequential data that doesn’t improve? At some point the markets may pay more attention to that, but right now we’re riding on a wave of better data and positive vaccine news,” Hogan said, adding a worrisome wild card is the extent of the outbreak.
In the week ahead, there are just a few data releases, including jobless claims Thursday. They will again be important, especially after continuing claims actually rose in the past week’s release by 59,000 to 19.3 million, despite the surge in rehiring, evident in the June employment report.
ISM nonmanufacturing data will be released Monday, and it will also get more than the usual attention.
“The key to next week is going to be the ISM services number, which will be important because of the dependence we have on the service side of the economy,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
But it’s virus news that may ultimately decide the course of the market and the economy.
“I think there’s people watching 12 vaccines, but nobody really has an idea on the cadence of the news. If it gets negative, it’s negative for markets,” said Lee. In the past week, stocks reacted to positive vaccine news from Pfizer.
Lee said the market has been able to look past the concerning rise in cases because death rates have been lower in the latest outbreak, which is affecting far more younger people.
“I think it’s telling us cases are less important than severity,” Lee said, adding the outbreak is still a big risk for markets. “It would be important for Texas , Florida or California to show a local peak.”
In the coming week, the Treasury will auction $46 billion 3-year notes Tuesday, $29 billion reopened 10-year notes Wednesday and $19 billion in reopened 30-year bonds Thursday.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Thursday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF THURSDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Thursday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
July Market Seasonality
At the start of each month, we send members our seasonality report that highlights the historical performance of the US stock market by month. In our July report published yesterday, we highlighted the chart below which shows the Dow's average change by month over the last 100, 50, and 20 years. One notable trend is that over the last 20 years, the Dow has actually averaged declines in half of all months. The summer months have been particularly negative, but July is the one month that stands out on the bullish side. As shown in the table, July is the only month from May through September that has averaged gains over the last 20 years, and the average gain has been quite strong at 1.32%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Best Quarter Since 1998
What a quarter the second quarter was, with the S&P 500 Index adding 20.0%, for the best quarter since 1998 and the best second quarter since 1938. Of course, stocks fell 20% in the first quarter, so what we really have is a bad case of whiplash in 2020 thus far.
“A 20% quarterly gain is quite rare, but the catch is previous large quarterly gains have actually led to continued strength,” according to LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a quarter later stocks have been higher the past 8 times after gaining at least 15% during the previous quarter.”
As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, future strong returns are quite normal after a big quarter. Although it might not seem likely given the headlines and magnitude of the current bounce, it is important to be aware that extreme strength usually begets more strength.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
2020 is halfway over, which means the third quarter is upon us. Historically, the third quarter has been the weakest quarter of the year.
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Breaking it down more though shows that July has been actually the strongest month during the summer. August and September have tended to be troublesome and dragged the third quarter down.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why Stocks Can Predict The Next President
Although the fight against COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines and our thoughts are with those affected, this is an election year and as we get closer to November it will begin to garner more attention. Next week in our Weekly Market Commentary, we will discuss the election in more detail, but today we wanted to share a very interesting connection between the stock market and election.
Turns out, since 1928, the stock market has accurately predicted the winner of the election 87% of the time and every single year since 1984. It is quite simple. When the S&P 500 Index has been higher the three months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost.
“Think about it; no one expected Hillary Clinton to lose back in 2016, no one except the stock market that is,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The Dow had a 9-day losing streak directly ahead of the election, while copper (more of a President Trump infrastructure play) was up a record 14 days in a row, setting the stage for the change in party leadership in the White House.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, as we get closer to the election, how stocks are doing could signal who might win in November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
First Half and Q2 2020 Asset Class Performance
Global pandemics, bear markets, bull markets, countless records in economic data, and widespread protests made for an eventful first half of 2020, to say the least. In the table below we show the total return of various asset classes using key ETFs in June, Q2, and the first half of 2020. As shown, overall the best performing assets in June could be found outside the US as international stocks surged. Hong Kong (EWH) in particular was the best performing asset in June. Oil (USO) similarly saw solid returns of 8.42% during the month but remained the second-worst performing asset in Q2 behind Natural Gas (UNG) which was also the worst-performing asset in June. Additionally, oil was the worst-performing asset in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, although their returns were more muted in Q2 and June, Treasuries (namely at the long end of the curve) were some of the top performers in the first half. Precious metals similarly were strong performers in the first half with particular strength from silver (SLV) in Q2. Silver actually saw returns in line with cyclical equities in Q2.
In terms of the US equities space, the Tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) drastically outperformed closing out June with a 16.91% gain in the first half. In Q2 and June, it was also the best performing major index by a wide margin. On a sector basis, Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) all rose over 30% in Q2 just like the Nasdaq did, though their first half and June returns were more modest with the exception of the Tech sector whose returns were more in line with that of the Nasdaq.
Investing based on market cap saw some interesting dynamics as well. Even though small caps are some of the major US indices down the most on the year—S&P 600 Small Caps (IJR) are down 17.89% and the Russell 2000 (IWM) is down 12.96% YTD—there was some catch up in June as these indices were some of the best performers. That applies to both growth and value names though small cap value (IJS) is still one of the most beaten-down groups in the US equities space. On the other hand, large-cap growth (IVW) offered the strongest returns in June, Q2, and the first half when compared to the various other style ETFs.
Outside of the US, even with big gains in June, countries like Brazil (EWZ), France (EWQ), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP) remain down big on the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Market Stronger Before Independence Day Holiday than After
Over the last 21 years, the trading day before Independence Day has been stronger than the day after. DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced 60.9% of the time with average gains of 0.15% and 0.12% respectively on the day before. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are slightly softer on the day before, but still lean bullish. On the trading day after Independence Day all four indexes have declined more frequently than advanced. DJIA has recorded the fewest number of advances while Russell 2000 has the worst average performance with a 0.14% loss.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
- $PAYX
- $ASPU
- $SMPL
- $WBA
- $BBBY
- $LEVI
- $SGH
- $MSM
- $HELE
- $AZZ
- $WDFC
- $GBX
- $NTIC
- $MARK
- $SAR
- $SLP
- $FC
- $SJR
- $JMDA
- $EXFO
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(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)
Monday 7.6.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 7.6.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
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Tuesday 7.7.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 7.7.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 7.8.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 7.8.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 7.9.20 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 7.9.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 7.10.20 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Friday 7.10.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Paychex, Inc. $76.59
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:15 AM ET on Tuesday, July 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.61 per share on revenue of $911.68 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.17% with revenue decreasing by 7.01%. Short interest has increased by 20.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 29.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.5% below its 200 day moving average of $77.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,124 contracts of the $75.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 5.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Aspen Group, Inc. $8.74
Aspen Group, Inc. (ASPU) is confirmed to report earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, July 7, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of $13.49 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.04) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 44.44% with revenue increasing by 32.07%. Short interest has increased by 62.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.4% above its 200 day moving average of $7.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 11.3% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Simply Good Foods Company $20.20
Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $224.49 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue increasing by 60.96%. Short interest has increased by 1.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% below its 200 day moving average of $22.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,010 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc $41.98
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, July 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.07 per share on revenue of $34.23 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 27.21% with revenue decreasing by 1.04%. Short interest has decreased by 4.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.7% below its 200 day moving average of $50.37. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,173 contracts of the $46.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. $10.81
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (BBBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Wednesday, July 8, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.40 per share on revenue of $1.32 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.46) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 27% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1,266.67% with revenue decreasing by 48.70%. Short interest has increased by 1.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 105.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.5% above its 200 day moving average of $10.76. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, July 1, 2020 there was some notable buying of 17,877 contracts of the $11.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 16.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Levi Strauss & Co. $13.35
Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Tuesday, July 7, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.42 per share on revenue of $709.62 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.40) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 31% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 347.06% with revenue decreasing by 45.95%. Short interest has increased by 14.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 17.9% below its 200 day moving average of $16.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 6.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
SMART Global Holdings, Inc. $27.03
SMART Global Holdings, Inc. (SGH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, July 7, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $280.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.61 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.63 to $0.73 per share on revenue of $270.00 million to $300.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 97.06% with revenue increasing by 19.21%. Short interest has decreased by 6.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.9% below its 200 day moving average of $29.04. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 13.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 11.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. $73.10
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. (MSM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 8, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $834.99 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.23 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 17.24% with revenue decreasing by 3.64%. Short interest has increased by 13.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $68.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Helen of Troy Ltd. $185.85
Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, July 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.57 per share on revenue of $369.27 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.80% with revenue decreasing by 1.88%. Short interest has increased by 10.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% above its 200 day moving average of $163.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
AZZ Inc. $33.13
AZZ Inc. (AZZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, July 9, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.76 per share on revenue of $279.10 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 38% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.17% with revenue decreasing by 3.47%. Short interest has increased by 32.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% below its 200 day moving average of $36.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 14.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.0% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?[Sell][US] Over 150 decanted samples & other items! Brands include Acwell, Banila Co, Beauty of Joseon, Benton, Botanic Farm, Cezanne, Cosrx, Etude House, Glow Recipe, Hada Labo, Heimish, Innisfree, Kiku, Klairs, Ceracolla, Mizon, Peach & Lily, Purito, Stratia, Sulwhasoo, and MORE!
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- Canada shipping starts at $11 and ranges up to $18 depending on package weight.
- Shipping to the UK, Europe, and Australia starts at $15 and ranges up to $24 depending on weight.
Special Notes: Decant products are clean, and only decanted from a pump, dropper, or with a clean spatula. Containers, spatulas, funnels, and syringes are sanitized (though imperfections in containers are a possibility). Pad-style decants come in a zip-top baggie. Sunscreen, retinol, and vitamin c products will come with opaque tape around the bottle due to the photosensitivity of the products. Liquid items come in 5ml, 15ml, or 30ml bottles - creamy items come in 5ml, 10ml, or 20ml jars. If you see something only available in small sizes, but are looking for more, just ask! I have item sizes listed in accordance to how large the original packaging is, but I'm happy to try to accommodate larger requests if possible.
What is a decant? A decant is product taken from a full size and transferred to a smaller sample size container. All my supplies are washed in hot soapy water, then rinsed in hot water, then rinsed again with an alcohol mixture to kill any germs. The products I make samples from are only used with a pump, clean spatula, or dropper so they are always kept sanitary. A majority of the items on my list are replaced on a monthly basis, but all are replaced in a timely manner if they happen to sell slower to ensure they are fresh and you have plenty of time to use them.
Requests are welcome =) I can't guarantee I'll be able to add it quickly, medical bills are insane since my husband has been diagnosed with cancer, but I'm always looking forward to hearing what you'd like to see on my list! If you're using a mobile browser: You may need to scroll to the right to see pricing in the spreadsheet format. *** = recently added to the list
SHEET MASKS & ETC / all new | Price Each | Qty Avail. |
---|---|---|
$9 | 0 | |
I'm From Mugwort Mask, 30ml, exp, 07/08/2020 | $9 | 1 |
Make P:rem Safe Me Relief Moisture Cream, 10ml, exp10/02/2020 | $5 | 1 |
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